Currency
Currency Confusion
Marc Chandler submits:The foreign exchange market is being accused of confusing the euro for the Greek drachma. Whereas many might be tempted to ignore the accusation, the fact that it was issued by the highly respected Martin Feldstein - who is a Harvard professor, a former Reagan administration official and a member (and former chairman) of the NBER committee that is the official arbiter of US recessions - requires taking the claim seriously.
Euro Still Down Under the Aussie Dollar
Clemens Kownatzki submits: The Euro hit a new multi-year low of 1.4809 versus the Australian Dollar Wednesday, reaching the lowest level since August 1997. The single currency has now lost 25% in the past 12 months and it has done so in a troubling one-way move to the down-side (click on historic chart below).
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Foreign Exchange Intervention at Issue in Japan
Marc Chandler submits:The US dollar's broad pullback is obscuring two otherwise noteworthy developments in Japan.First, both the prime minister and the finance minister made a none-too-thinly veiled threat of foreign exchange intervention. Although one investment house was quoted on the wires late Thursday suggesting the odds of intervention stood at 47%, we suspect this verbal outburst is part of the ongoing battle between the MOF and BOJ. Even though the latter may take another step this month or next to combat deflation, the MOF wants more action.As we have suggested, one of the possible actions is to simply increase the JPY10 trillion 3-month financing facility launched at the end of last year and that has nearly been exhausted. The government could order intervention if it so decided and that was the message the government was sending.
Friday FX Brief: Investors Question Sustainable Euro Weakness
Andrew Wilkinson submits: The dollar is under pressure to end the week after words from a powerful investment house jolted investors expecting further decimation of the single European currency into a spin by warning that the next 10 cents for the euro is more likely on the upside than the downside. An unexpected jump in retail sales has provided a lifeline to an ailing dollar on Friday morning, but in my mind the die has been cast in that the rationale for remaining short the euro has just become more perilous than ever. Complete Story »
Reasons to Like the Canadian Dollar
Marc Chandler submits:Canada reported a larger than expected trade surplus earlier today. At C$0.8 billion, it was four times larger than expected and the December figures were revised to show a C$0.1 billion surplus instead of a C$0.2 billion deficit. Canada also reported a strong rise in Q4 capacity utilization to 70.9% from a revised 68.7% in Q3 (previously estimated at 67.5%). Canada will report February employment figures on Friday. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained steady at 8.3% and it appears that Canadian unemployment may have peaked in the middle of Q3 '09 at 8.7%.A favorable fundamental case for the US dollar can be built on the idea that the output gap will close in the US before it closes in Japan and Europe. However, Canada appears to be the only other G7 country that can match the US. Canada is expected to either match US growth this year or nearly match it.
Rate Hikes Coming, Somewhere, Soon
Macro Man submits: Hut hut ... hike!Although the Super Bowl is long past us and the sports pages are now dominated by (delete as appropriate) NCAA basketball / Champions League / spring training / Man U takeover talk, Macro Man cannot get the familiar quarterback cadence (cunningly used at the start of today's post) out of his head. Complete Story »
PREVIEW-Embraer Q4 net likely fell 7 pct on currency - Reuters
PREVIEW-Embraer Q4 net likely fell 7 pct on currencyReuters... drop 7.1 percent from a year earlier, as a stronger currency slashed export revenue and as exposure to bankrupt US airline Mesa Air Group Inc (MESAQ. ...















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