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    M3

    Lies, Damned Lies and Government Statistics

    Submitted by Meridian on Tue, 08/12/2008 - 10:32am
    • CPI
    • Econometrics
    • Inflation
    • M3
    • Shadowstats

    They say that numbers don't lie. While this may be partly true, give these same numbers to politicians and crunch them through some econometric models and what pops out the other end could be nothing but a bunch of meaningless nonsense. But, correctly packaged and tastefully delivered, this nonsense could be enough to alter people's thought patterns.

    This is a nutshell is what economist John Williams and his organization www.shaodowstats.com is all about.

    Take for example the Consumer Price Index. After WW 2, CPI was devised to provide a measure of a fixed basket of goods so that contracts and wage increases with unionized auto workers could be hammered out. But in the late 1980's the Maestro – Alan Greenspan – suggested a "few changes" with the help from folks at the Council of Economic Indicators. He reckoned that if the price of steak went up, people would substitute hamburger instead. Hence by purchasing hamburger, one's cost of living would go down. The notion did not fly at the time, but during the Clinton administration, the idea of geometric weighting was introduced. So, if something went up in value, it was given a lower weighting based on the presumption that people would buy less of it. Thanks to this mathematical chicanery, Social Security payments today are quite a bit less than what they would have been if the constant basket of goods method had been maintained.

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