Unrest In The Caucasus

Call me a cynic, call me a skeptic. Whenever a hotspot flares up in the world, I invariably find myself exploring for deeper meanings instead of just accepting the perspective offered up by CNN.

The current situation involving Georgia, Russia and South Ossetia has certainly given me plenty to ponder.

As a brief history, as the Russian empire expanded in the 18th and 19th centuries, the tribal people of Ossetia generally sided with the Russians instead of trying to fight them. In the 1920's, this loyalty seems to have been rewarded when Russia established the South Ossetian Autonomous Region which today lies inside the breakaway Republic of Georgia.

As the Soviet Union began its fade to black as the Communist model failed, Georgian nationalist leader Zviad Gamsakhurdia began locking horns with South Ossetia. Violence flared in 1990 as South Ossetia declared its intention to secede from Georgia. When the Soviet Union officially failed in 1991-1992, South Ossetia ramped up its separatist rhetoric. Clashes followed and casualties mounted

Fast forward to the present and we see that the situation has again flared up. But this time, the dynamic is different and this invites a series of questions.

1) Why did hostilities break out one day before the Olympics? The skeptic in me says the Georgian attacks on South Ossetia were timed to start just as China was fully occupied with hosting the Olympics. With China otherwise occupied, China is unable to take sides and get involved.

2) What of the pipelines that run through South Ossetia? Russia has been flexing its energy muscles over the past year. The Bakku-Novorossiysk pipeline runs from Baku on the Caspian Sea to Novorossiysk and moves 100,000 barrels a day to European markets. Georgia, by taking a swing at South Ossetia, might be trying to gain control over this pipeline system. Russia, by invading Georgia, may be trying to take control of the South Caucasus gas pipeline and the Bakku-Supsa oil pipeline.

3) Is it possible that other "world powers" are working in the shadows to aid and abet Georgia? Is this part of a larger global plan to derail Russia's quest for energy dominance over Europe?

4) Is this whole exercise designed to divert attention away from the faltering debt markets in North America? Let's face it, the media is fickle. It will go after the most sensational stories.

So many questions, so little time to ponder them all. I welcome feedback from visitors to this site on the questions I have posed above. There is more to this issue in Georgia than meets the eye…